Mega Fantasy Sleepers Preview: Steals, Robberies, Hijackings

Boom goes the dynamite!!!

In Fantasy Football what's most important when valuing individual players, or your team as a whole is not how well your players perform, but how much your players exceed expectations.  Last year in Fantasy Football Calvin "Megatron" Johnson was fantasy's number one overall receiver.  Victor Cruz meanwhile was the number five scoring fantasy receiver.  If you had the option between Cruz and Megatron last year I don't think anyone would say Cruz.  However, if you could choose between Calvin Johnson in the third round, and an un-drafted Victor Cruz you would be smart to take Cruz.  This is because of a metric I created myself called Value Above Draft Position or VADP.  For example Cruz was an un-drafted player in most standard 10-team leagues with a 16 player roster size.  This means that however many wide receivers are taken within the top 160 Cruz would need to out perform to exceed his draft day value.  This year 50 wide receivers are being taken in the top 160 draft picks on average on ESPN.  Assuming the number was relatively the same Victor Cruz's VADP would be however much he outscored the 50th highest scoring wide receiver.  Last year Victor Cruz scored 198 fantasy points while Mike Williams of Tampa Bay scored 85 points making him the 50th highest scoring wide receiver.  This means Victor Cruz has a 2011 VADP of 113.  Calvin Johnson on the other hand was on average taken in the late second round at 17th overall.  Since Johnson was on average the 5th wide receiver off the board his VADP will compare his point scoring to that of the fifth overall wide receiver.  Coincidentally that receiver happens to be Victor Cruz.  Cruz scored 198 points and Johnson scored 254 giving Johnson a VADP of 56.  This means that while Johnson had a great season, Victor Cruz was more valuable.

By now it should be clear that a fantasy football player should not be judged based on how many points they score, but instead on how valuable that player was.  Here are some players I think are being significantly undervalued, and will end up posting good VADP marks.   A steal is considered a player who I think should be going about a round earlier.  A robbery is considered a player who I think should be going about two rounds earlier.  A hijacking is considered a player who I think should go three or more rounds earlier.  Position by position I'm going to give one hijacking, steal, and robbery.

QB

Steal: Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan is on average going as the 11th quarterback and 62nd overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  The Atlanta Falcons have a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter who though he does not have much offensive success in the past has said he is going to open things up in the passing game this year.  Matt Ryan has a great pass catching back in Jacquizz Rodgers, a very good third receiver in Harry Douglas, and two dynamic all-pro receivers that complement each other well.  With both Julio Jones and Roddy White to throw to, and another year in the bag for Ryan I think he should improve upon last year and become a top-ten QB in fantasy football this year.

Robbery: Robert Griffin III

Robert Griffin is on average going as the 13th quarterback and 85th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  RG3 is a rookie quarterback so obviously he is a big risk, but I think he has huge fantasy potential.  The past two seasons the Redskins have insisted on throwing the ball a lot despite the fact that they have had Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, and the guy who makes Tim Tebow look like Tom Brady in John Beck throwing the ball.  In fact the Redskins have finished top-five in the league in pass attempts both years with Mike Shanahan as the head coach.  Now that Shanahan has a quarterback with some skill I think there is no reason he wouldn't pass that much, and RG3 should benefit.  I think on passing alone Griffin will be a borderline fantasy starter, and finish somewhere in the 10-12 range at QB.  What makes him special is I think he will also rack up some points via his running ability, and become a top-ten fantasy QB.

Hijacking: Jake Locker

Jake Locker is on average going as the 25th quarterback and the 143rd overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  I think Locker's stock will rise a little more after some stellar pre-season performances and recently being named the starter, but the stock won't rise enough.  Jake Locker is an incredible athlete with big arm strength, and a 4.59 40 yard dash time.  That's the same time as fantasy stud and fellow second year quarterback Cam Newton.  Locker has some serious pass accuracy, and decision making issues but the news out of training camp is that he has been dramatically improving.  With all the physical tools to be a stud, a running back like Chris Johnson to take pressure off him, and receiving threats in Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and rookie Kendall Wright I think Locker will have a good year.  Locker has the upside to be a top-ten QB with his running ability and throwing tools, but at the very least I think he should be a quality backup in ten team leagues who should go as about the 15th quarterback off the board in fantasy drafts.


RB
Steal: Jamaal Charles

"High Five!"

Jamaal Charles is on average going as the 11th running back and the 25th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  Charles has looked great so far in pre-season, and there are no doubts that he will start come week one.  I think it is possible Charles won't be quite the same guy as he was pre-injury, but I think he will be very close to as good.  Another concern with fantasy owners is that Charles will have to compete with Peyton Hillis for goal line work, but that is not a legitimate concern.  In 2010 when Charles posted the 4th best season among running backs that year Thomas Jones rushed for over 1,000 yards while getting most of the goal line work.  Charles is such a dynamic back that he doesn't need to worry about Hillis, and it's not like the Chiefs are going to throw the ball.  I think Charles will end the season around the fifth overall running back (I have him ranked seventh), and should be considered an early second round pick.

Robbery: Cedric Benson

Cedric Benson is on average going as the 38th running back and 105th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  The running backs going 35th to 40th around Benson are Mark Ingram, C.J. Spiller, Donald Brown, Toby Gerhart, and David Wilson.  Ingram is in a time share with Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas.  Spiller is a backup to Fred Jackson, Donald Brown sucks, Gerhart is a backup to Adrian Peterson, and David Wilson is a backup to Ahmad Bradshaw.  Cedric Benson meanwhile is a clear cut starter who finished as Fantasy's number 23 running back last season.  I guess some people haven't got the memo that James Starks is not going to be sharing carries with Benson because there is no reason he should be going so late.  I'm not saying Benson is a dynamic back by any means (in fact I think Spiller, Wilson, and Gerhart are all much better and are good sleepers/handcuff backs who will do good if the opportunity arises), but in fantasy football opportunity matters more than talent.  Benson is probably not going to get a ton of carries in such a great passing attack, but I think he will slowly trot out a top-30 RB season.  By no means would I draft Benson as a starter in fantasy, but I think he will be a good bye-week fill in and occasional flex play.

Hijacking: Doug Martin

Doug Martin is on average going as the 28th running back and 80th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  Martin is a 5-9 223 pound running back who ran a 4.43 40, is a good pass blocker, and a very capable receiving back.  The player who he reminds most of is Ray Rice.  Rice is a 5-8 212 pound running back who ran a 4.42 40, is a good pass blocker, and a very capable receiving back.  With Legarette "Imma punch you" Blount (a notoriously bad pass blocker, receiving back, and runner) as his only backfield competition I think Martin should get the bulk of the carries for Tampa Bay as soon as he steps on the field.  I think Martin will end the season as a borderline top 20 fantasy running back, and will be a quality starter as a running back two in fantasy football most weeks.

WR
Steal: Brandon Lloyd

Brandon Lloyd is on average going as the 17th wide receiver and the 50th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  Lloyd is an incredibly dynamic deep ball threat who has arguably the best deep ball thrower in football as his quarterback.  Lloyd also has Josh McDaniels who was his offensive coordinator in Denver and St. Louis on the team, and McDaniels loves to throw to Brandon Lloyd.  With Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez all taking the defenses attention away from him Lloyd should be open on a lot of deep balls, and Tom Brady is more than capable of hitting him in stride for the touchdown.  Lloyd will finish as a top-15 wide receiver, and with top-ten upside Lloyd should be going around 35th overall in my mind.  As a Patriots fan still suffering from that brutal Super Bowl defeat I am ecstatic about the addition of Lloyd to this already imposing passing attack.

Robbery: Torrey Smith

Torrey Smith is on average going as the 30th wide receiver and the 89th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  This makes no sense to me at all, and this is why:  Last year Torrey Smith finished as the #22 overall fantasy football wide receiver as a rookie.  Most second year players improve from their past season.  Joe Flacco is a young quarterback who loves to throw the deep ball, and Torrey Smith is super fast and loves to run for the deep ball.  Anquan Boldin was Smith's main competition last year for targets, and he's just getting older.  Smith has looked great for the Ravens so far in pre-season, and should have a great top-20 season at Wide Receiver this year.  In my mind he should be going in the late 6th round making him a "hijacking" who I only called a robbery because the next guy on this last is a true hijacking.

Hijacking: Percy Harvin

Percy Harvin is on average going as the 18th wide receiver and the 56th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  Last year Percy Harvin finished as the #8 wide receiver in fantasy football and was incredible in the second half of last season.  I think Percy Harvin will be able to stay healthy, and be one of the focal points of this Vikings offense.  The news from Vikings camp is that Christian Ponder and Harvin have developed a strong connection, and Harvin should continue to thrive.  With Adrian Peterson coming back from his ACL surgery I think Harvin will get some rushes in the backfield to boost his stats just like he did at the end of last year.  Most importantly Percy Harvin is a super talented receiver, and is the only talented receiver on a Vikings team meaning he is going to get a ton of opportunity.  I think Percy Harvin should be a mid to late third round running back, and will again finish as a top-ten wide receiver in fantasy football.

TE
Steal: Fred Davis

Fred Davis is on average going as the 9th tight end and the 101st overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  See Griffin, Robert.  I already talked about how much the Redskins throw the ball.  I already talked about how much I love RG3.  The reason I like Fred Davis is because of his talent, RG3, and Shanahan's offense.  Shanahan traditionally likes to run a lot of QB rollouts, and with a mobile quarterback like Griffin I think that trend will continue.  When a QB runs a rollout the TE is generally a primary option on the play, and I think Davis will get a lot of looks on rollouts this year.  Fred Davis is going in the early 11th round, but I think he will be a quality TE starter and deserves to go around the 9th round.

Robbery: Greg Olsen

Greg Olsen is on average going as the 15th tight end and the 137th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  Last year Cam Newton threw almost exactly 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns to his tight ends.  Those two tight ends were Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey.  This year Jeremy Shockey is not on the team.  I think Olsen has the potential to have a 1,000 yard 10 touchdown season, but at the very least will have a 800 yard six touchdown season.  If he were to have the 800 yard season he would finish with 116 fantasy points which would have put him as the 7th overall fantasy tight end last year.  If Olsen were to have a 1,000 yard 10 touchdown season (which I'd say there is about a 25%-33% chance of) he would have been fantasy's #3 tight end last year behind Graham and Gronkowski.  I think Olsen has big upside, and should be drafted around 7th at tight end, at about the 75th overall pick.

Hijacking: Jermaine Gresham

Jermaine Gresham is on average going as the 17th tight end and the 139th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  Gresham is a 6-5  260 tight end who runs a 4.65 40 and is only 24 years old.  Gresham was fantastic in college at Oklahoma, and earned a first round pick.  With Andy Dalton hopefully improving from last year Gresham should develop a better connection with him.  A.J. Green is the only other receiving threat on this team because Brandon Tate is the #2 WR for this time.  Tate is by no means a up and coming star like Green, so Gresham should get plenty of targets.  Jermaine reminds me of the Graham/Gates type wide receiver like tight ends who just make plays.  Even last year when Gresham didn't have a great connection with Andy Dalton he still finished as the #13 fantasy tight end, and a couple jaw dropping highlights like this: Jermaine Gresham One-Handed Catch

There are a ton of potential sleepers in football, and I could write this article again with completely different people, but these are some of the players I feel the strongest about.  Jake Locker, Doug Martin, Percy Harvin, and Jermaine Gresham I think are all being significantly undervalued, and I will get Martin in Harvin in almost every league (Locker and Gresham are great, but if I have say Rodgers and Graham I'm not going to go after either of them).  All these players are great talents (except for you Cedric Benson), and I think they will all post significantly good VADP numbers.  I created VADP while writing this article to try and explain value of certain players, and I think I will continue to use the statistic in my fantasy football analysis.

Overall Olympic Medals From an Incredibly Biased Perspective

The Olympics are broken down into two separate weeks for me.  Week 1 is owned by swimming and gymnastics, and week 2 is all about team sports and track events.  My overall medals are based on which athletes dominated their weeks and caught my attention.  This is incredibly biased because it is affected by what I actually watched during the Olympics (otherwise known as you can expect mostly USA athletes in this column.) .  So, without further ado we go to the medal ceremony.

WEEK 1

Honorable Mention: Ryan Lochte, Ye Shiwen, and Aly Raisman

Aly wonders if McKayla is impressed with how gold tastes?

Worth mentioning are Ryan Lochte who for one night was anointed as the greatest swimmer on earth, and then came crashing back down to just one of the greatest.  Seeing the fall in popularity of Lochte was stunning.  After that 400 IM on the first night of the Olympics it seemed Lochte was poised to go on an epic run, but when he screwed up the Lezak relay repeat and failed to dominate all of his events he quickly fell out of the spotlight.  He still managed to get two golds and five total medals so in my opinion it was a pretty damn good olympics.  Honorary mention also goes to Ye Shiwen or as she's more commonly known in 'Merica "that 16 year old Chinese who's been doping."  I have no idea whether she actually was on steroids, but let's just say if I really thought she could best Michael Phelps last 100 meters in the 400 IM she would probably be winning a medal in this column.  Either way she had a great performance, and all the debate surrounding her made the Olympics all the more exciting.  Finally, honorable mention goes to Aly Raisman who I came very close to giving the bronze to.  Raisman helped the modern day fab five win the all-around team gold, and individually took home a bronze on the balance beam and gold on the floor routine.  Of the fab five Raisman had the best performance in the individual events, and being the captain of the team was also very impressive (even if McKayla is not impressed).

BRONZE MEDAL: Gabby Douglas

Anyone else get dizzy looking at this picture?

Douglas was the star of the fab five's team all-around finals, and then the next day took home the individual all-around which is the biggest honor in Olympic gymnastics.  Gabby did falter after that though failing to place on both the uneven bars and the balance beam.  Though Gabby underwhelmed on the individual events she still was the star of the fab five, and a transcendent gymnast being black in a mostly white sport.  At 4-11 with a big smile Gabby seemed incredibly happy to be at the olympics, but still poised and confident in her abilities.  Watching all the gymnasts is always incredible, but Gabby was the most impressive of them all and truly a joy to watch.

SILVER MEDAL: Missy Franklin

I wonder if she "Missy" America in London?

At only seventeen years old Franklin put together an incredible Olympics.  In seven events she placed fifth 100m freestyle, fourth in the 200m freestyle, third in the 4x100 team freestyle relay, first in the 100m backstroke, first and olympic record in the 4x200 team freestyle relay, first and world record in the 200m backstroke, and first with a world record in the 4x100 team medley relay.  Overall she had five medals, four golds, one olympic record, and two world records.  It was a epic performance by Franklin, and she went about it all with a fantastic attitude.  With her giant feet and 6-1 body Franklin seems to be the female version of star swimmer Michael Phelps.  The American media has fallen in love with her because of her homegrown American way of life, and are impressed that she has turned down prize money and sponsorships in order to maintain collegiate eligibility.  What I'm happy about is that instead of competing for the Canadian squad (she has dual-citizenship) she chose to represent the US and bring us home some more gold.

GOLD MEDAL: Michael Phelps

I can never recognize swimmers while they're swimming

When Michael Phelps barely qualified for the 400m IM and then placed 4th in the individual relay people were shocked.  In his next two events Phelps had two silvers, one of which came in the revenge of the French in the 4x100m freestyle relay.  After earning the two silvers people decided Phelps was still very good, he just wasn't what he used to be.  At this point I thought that Michael Phelps' 2012 Olympics would be similar to Jordan's Washington Wizards comeback.  It shows us that he's still good, and can compete at a high level despite taking so much time off.  However it disappoints us because it shows that Phelps/Jordan is nothing but a human.  I was wrong.  In his next four events, 4x200m freestyle relay, 200m individual medley, 100m butterfly, 4x100 medley relay Phelps ran the table.  He ended the 2012 Olympics with six medals, and four golds, but also 22 Olympic career medals and 18 gold medals.  Simply put, Phelps cemented his status as the greatest swimmer of all time.  Instead of reminding me of the Jordan Wizards comeback, it reminded me of Jordan's comeback from his "baseball career."  Jordan like Phelps started out slow with a loss to the Orlando Magic in the 1995 playoffs, but picked it up afterwards to prove that he was the greatest of all time at his respective sport.

WEEK 2

Honorable Mention: Misty May-Treanor/Kerri Walsh, Yohan Blake, and Mo Farah/Jessica Ennis

PEEK-A-BOO!!!!!!!!!!

The dynamic duo of Misty May-Treanor and Kerri Walsh went undefeated in route to their third straight 2-on-2 Olympic beach volleyball gold.  In the finals Treanor and Walsh played a great match against fellow Americans April Ross and Jennifer Kessy that gave them their third gold.  Treanor and Walsh's ability to perform in the clutch with incredible consistency separated them from the field in what was probably their last Olympics.  Yohan Blake helped the Jamaicans to a gold in their world record setting 4x100m relay, and got individual silver's in both the 100m and 200m.  If there was no Usain Bolt in the world Blake would have swept the board in sprinting track events while setting some records (remember there is no Bolt in this world).  It is sad for Blake though because he will forever be in the shadow of the 6-4 Bolt.  Mo Farah and Jessica Ennis were the stars for the host country in Britain.  Jess as the Brits call her won gold in the 800m Heptathlon while becoming adored by her English fans, and Mo Farah won golds in both the 5,000m and 10,000m long distance runs.

BRONZE MEDAL: Allyson Felix

Just like a waving flag, and then it goes, and then it goes back

In four events Felix won three golds, and helped set a world record.  In the 200m and the 4x400m relay Felix won gold for team USA.  The Women's track team also set a world record in the 4x100m relay with help from Felix and fellow track star Carmelita Jeter.  The 4x100m relay was an incredible performance by the US women as they shattered the Germans world record from 1985 by 0.55 seconds.  It may not seem like that much, but in track and field more than half a second is an eternity.  After getting silver medals in her last Olympics Felix was probably overjoyed to come up with "not 1...not 2...(how did I know I would talk about Lebron at some point this article, oh yeah, because I write it) but 3 gold medals.

SILVER MEDAL: USA Women's Soccer Team

It looks like she forgot the flag she was supposed to be holding

The US women's soccer team got revenge against a Japan team that had beaten them in the World Cup by defeating them to earn a gold in the 2012 Olympics.  With Hope Solo, Megan Rapinoe, and the fiery Abby Wambach the US team fought for the gold.  It was not easy, and the 4-3 123rd minute victory over Canada after two overtimes by Alex Morgan was one of the greatest moments of the Olympics.  Abby Wambach chewed out the referee in order to give them extra time when Morgan scored the amazing goal to win it.  In the finals Carli Lloyd scored two goals in route to the 2-1 victory over Japan.  It was a difficult run for the team, but with Wambach's leadership they never stopped fighting and came home with a well deserved gold.

GOLD MEDAL: Usain Bolt

He's pointing at his home country of Mars

The country of Jamaica had four gold medals.  The legend of Usain Bolt had three.  In Bolt's last six Olympic events he has won six golds, and set two world records and an olympic record.  There were some questions coming in to this Olympics after Yohan Blake had beat Bolt in Jamaican qualifiers, but a doubter cannot be heard after what he did this Olympics.  Bolt proved once again that he is the greatest and the fastest sprinter of all time, not to mention one of the greatest showmen among athletes.  With all his pre-race dances and post-race poses Bolt ran like lightning to a 100m, 200m, and 4x100m gold victory.  In the 100m Bolt was in the middle of the pack at the midway point in the race, but switched into another gear and zoomed to the finish and a Olympic record (yes he does own the World record).  Well actually he slowed up just a bit at the finish by spreading his arms wide and coming as close to flying as any human has ever done.  In the 200m Bolt slowed down at the finish to turn his head and put a finger to his lips to shush the crowd.  In the 4x100m Bolt's end of race display was post-poned till next time as he ran hard to give the Jamaicans a new world record.  Like Phelps Bolt used the 2012 London Olympics to affirm his status as the greatest ever at what he does.  Phelps is the greatest swimmer ever, and Bolt is the greatest sprinter ever.

Fantasy Football Strategy Guide: First Round Edits, Second/Third Round and Beyond

Things looking ugly for MJD

FIRST THREE ROUNDS: Its been a couple weeks since my blog about the first round of fantasy football draft, and a couple things have changed my rankings on the first round.  Maurice Jones-Drew who I had ranked sixth last time I ranked my top twelve has continued to hold out, and I am starting to get worried.  I don't think MJD will miss any games, but ala Chris Johnson last year I could see a drop in production from Drew.  I don't think he will have anywhere near the drop off that Chris Johnson had, however I think his output will lessen.  Jones-Drew is going to fall down to #12 on my rankings making him a borderline first or second round pick depending on your league size.

Another top-twelve running back that is moving down is Ryan Mathews.  On Mathews first carry, repeat, first carry Mathews suffered a broken collarbone that is supposed to keep him out 4-6 weeks.  Reports are saying that Mathews will probably miss 1-3 weeks and at the latest will be available by week four.  I think he will probably miss week one and two, but he'll be available by week three.  I have no reasoning for that, but I think it's a conservative prediction of what fantasy owners can expect from him.  Mathews does not just drop in my rankings because he'll miss a couple games, but also because this injury just reinforces to me how injury prone he is.   Mathews has played 12 and 14 games in his two respective seasons so far, and has been hampered in many other games he played.  After this injury I expect nothing else from Mathews this year, but he has more upside than last year because he has less backfield competition.  Without Mike Tolbert stealing touchdowns from Mathews I think he will do slightly better in games which he is fully healthy, but he will not always be healthy.  Due to his injury I drop Mathews from 12th to 16th on my overall rankings.

Charles is looking to bounce back from ACL surgery

My top twelve obviously did a little shuffling because of the movement of Mathews and Jones-Drew.  Drew Brees moved up to 6th overall replacing Mathews, but everyone else didn't just move up.  The trio of Calvin Johnson, Matt Forte, and Chris Johnson got shuffled up this time around.  I decided that both Forte and Chris Johnson should leapfrog Johnson for the 7th and 8th overall spots respectively.  My decision was made because in my opinion Forte has a slightly higher upside than Calvin, and has an equal amount of downside.  Chris versus Calvin was much tougher to decide because Chris has much more upside, but also a significant amount of downside.  My decision was made based on how deep wide receiver is compared to the weakness of the running back position.  Ultimately I decided it was a better investment to go after a high end running back than receiver.  So Calvin Johnson moved to #9 on the overall rankings leaving his quarterback Matthew Stafford right behind him at #10.  Last year Stafford and Johnson finished in those exact spots in overall VBD, and I think they both will have similar seasons.  At #11 Jamaal Charles jumped into my rankings after not even being talked about in my last blog.  The word out of training camp was that Jamal Charles had regained his burst and looked good in drills after coming off his ACL surgery.  Both Jones-Drew and Marshawn Lynch are very close to Charles in my rankings, but I decided upon Charles at #11, MJD at #12 and Lynch at #13.  In my opinion Charles has more upside than Lynch, and also has slightly less downside surprisingly.  Though Charles is coming off surgery, Lynch has proven that he can be awful, while Charles should not be hampered by the ACL too much.  Charles and Jones-Drew are very similar because they both could miss a game at the beginning of the season, but I don't think either will.  They're also very similar because their best seasons had them each finish 3rd overall at running back, but because Charles is younger I think he has a better chance of repeating that which gives him more upside.

Battle of the TE's: Graham versus Gronkowski

After Lynch at #13 comes the raging debate of Jimmy Graham versus Rob Gronkowski.  In my first round blog I talked about Gronk as a potential first rounder, but not Graham.  The reasoning for that was that Gronk's year last year was 11th in overall VBD for ten team leagues while Graham's was 21st.  However this year I think they will both settle somewhere in between.  Gronk has much more downside than Graham because his touchdowns are not necessarily repeatable, and their are a lot more options in the New England offense.  Gronkowski's upside however is only slightly better because I don't really think Gronk will ever be better numbers wise than last year, but he could do about the same thing.  Graham could do better than last year this year because he has only been playing high-level football for a couple years and there is more room for growth.  I also could see Graham getting more targets because the Saints lost Robert Meachem, and with the lack of Sean Payton I could see Brees relying on his security blanket in Graham more.  Graham doesn't have much downside except for defenses keying on him and Sean Payton not being there, but I don't think either should really effect him.  Overall Gronk has a slightly higher upside, but a much bigger downside making Graham #14 overall and Gronk #15.

Julio Jones or Roddy White?  (Hint: Rhymes with Bones)

In my opinion players 1-6 overall (Aaron Rodgers, Ray Rice, Arian Foster, Tom Brady, Lesean McCoy, and Drew Brees respectively) are a clear cut above the rest and make up "tier 1."  Tier 2 in my opinion is players 7-15 that have been discussed in these last couple paragraphs.  Everyone in the 7-15 range either has a ton of upside and a good amount of downside (Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Maurice Jones-Drew, Marshawn Lynch, and Rob Gronkowski), or good not great upside, and not much downside (Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford, and Jimmy Graham).  At #16 I have Ryan Mathews starting tier 3.  Mathews has the talent to be a top-ten player, but not the durability to be a top-ten pick.  Tier 3 is filled with players just like Mathews, talent, but at the same time a lot of question marks.  For me Mathews, Cam Newton, Larry Fitzgerald, Darren McFadden, Brandon Marshall, Demarco Murray, Steven Jackson, Roddy White, Wes Welker, A.J. Green, Adrian Peterson, Trent Richardson, Percy Harvin, and Julio Jones make up the next tier.  After Mathews I have Cam Newton at #17 because he has such a high upside.  In my opinion Cam Newton is one of two players in this tier who have the best shot at ending up as a top 5 overall VBD ranker by season end.  The other is Adrian Peterson, and while both Cam and AP have a lot of question marks Peterson has more worrisome ones that drop him further down my rankings.  At #18 I have the much safer pick in Larry Fitzgerald.  I do not think Fitz will finish the season as a top 20 player, but I also don't think he'll be worse than 30th and because of that he earns a top 20 ranking.  Darren McFadden and his immense potential slot in at #19 for me, and if you draft him you can do nothing but cross your fingers and hope he doesn't get injured.  Rounding out the top 20 is Julio Jones of the Atlanta Falcons.  If Jones manages to play 14 games I truly believe he will be a top 15 fantasy player, and I think he is the second most likely WR behind Calvin Johnson to have a top-ten fantasy year.  However due to his injury risk I put him at #20 overall.

Not quite sure what the defenders doing

21st is Greg Jennings who is similar to Larry Fitzgerald in that he doesn't have a ton of upside, but when your a primary target on the team that has Aaron Rodgers you also don't have much downside.  At #22 I put Roddy White who lines up across the field from #20 Julio Jones.  White doesn't have the upside of Jones, but he also doesn't have the downside which makes him a great pick at WR.  23rd overall I have Steven Jackson.  Jackson is not a flashy player who's going to have a massive year, but he's the only running back and really the only talent on a weak Rams offense.  Jackson's upside is around 18th overall, but his downside isn't below 30th and he is a good safe pick.  At 24th overall I have A.J. Green of the Cincinnati Bengals.  The best thing about Green is that he is far and away the best option on his team.  The worst thing about Green is that he is far and away the best option on his team, and he has Andy Dalton throwing to him.  Defenses will definitely key on Green this year, and I'm not sure Dalton is talented enough to still get Green the ball while making the defense pay by hitting other options.  Nonetheless Green is an extremely athletic, young talented wide receiver who is pretty safe to put up good numbers, and has the potential for great ones.  In a 12 team league two rounds should be wrapped up after 24 picks, and I make sure I get two of my personal top 24 regardless of position (the only thing I wouldn't do is draft two QB's).

I'm not sure if Peterson's able to play "All Day"

25th for me is Adrian Peterson coming off his late season ACL surgery.  This ranking is in constant flux for me, and reports leading up to week 1 will most certainly change my ranking of him.  If he manages to play 13 games at close to full strength I still think he is worth a high pick because that's just as good as #13 overall Marshawn Lynch at full strength.  However I'm not sure he'll be close to full strength, and frankly I have no idea where to rank him.  If your drafting soon I wouldn't take AP if there were comparable options on the board, but I think by the end of the month late drafters like myself will be able to better gauge where to take Peterson.  Brandon Marshall signed with the Chicago Bears this off season, and that alone is why I rank Marshall so highly.  Marshall's peak came when Jay Cutler was his quarterback with Denver, and now Cutler is his QB in Chicago.  Marshall has been playing with the crap sandwich more commonly known as Matt Moore, Chad Henne, Chad Pennington, and Tyler Thigpen these past couple years so his production should improve greatly.  I put Cowboys Running Back Demarco Murray at 27th overall.  Murray is recovering from an ACL tear he suffered last season.  Murray shouldn't miss more than one or two games, and he could miss zero but everyone wants to know if he'll be at full strength.  If he is at full strength the question remains whether he can stay healthy, but in limited action last year he proved when healthy he is a dynamic running back that plays very similar to Adrian Peterson.  There are a ton of questions with Murray, but with such a weak running back field his upside makes him a top 30 draft pick.

No this is not the same person as the picture above

In my opinion the three most underrated top 30 talents are Matt Forte, Julio Jones, and Percy Harvin who I rank 28th overall.  In 6 of Harvin's last 7 games in 2012 he had 15 or more points, and he was the only wide receiver to do so.  If you project that over a 16 game season Harvin would have been fantasy's second best receiver with only 4 points less than Calvin Johnson.  Harvin's crazy production came while Peterson was either out or hampered by injury, and the beginning of this year should be just the same for Harvin.  Once Peterson recovers fully Harvin probably won't get as many touches, but he should continue to be very productive.  Wes Welker ranks 29th overall despite finishing as the third best receiver in fantasy last year.  The reason Welker drops so much is because the Patriots added Brandon Lloyd.  With Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and Lloyd competing for targets I think Welker will continue to be productive, but not as productive.  Finishing off the top 30 is rookie running back Trent Richardson of the Cleveland Browns.  Richardson suffered an injury in training camp, but it doesn't look to severe so he shouldn't miss any time.  It's hard to rank Richardson because he is a rookie who is going to play on one of the worst offenses in football.  Normally fantasy owners try to avoid the words "rookie" worst offense" "Cleveland" and "Browns" so this is surely a sign of the Mayans being correct.  However Richardson is a great talent who really is the only option on this Browns team meaning that the volume of his work should make up for the fact that defenses will pay so much attention to him.  That's the top 30 so in a ten-team league (and even in a 12) you should aim to get three of these thirty players (or three of your own top 30) as long as you don't have to get two tight ends or two quarterbacks.


GENERAL STRATEGY BY POSITION

QB

Is Eli really better than me?

The top five quarterbacks this year are stronger than any year in recent history and arguably ever.  All five of them are worthy of either a first or second round pick, and Aaron Rodgers is worth the #1 overall pick.  If you don't get one of those five guys the only other quarterback who has that type of talent is Michael Vick.  Vick is worth a mid 4th round pick in my opinion, but after that it's best to wait.  Currently in ESPN live drafts Eli Manning is going 31st, Peyton Manning 42nd, Tony Romo 48, Phillip Rivers 60.  This makes no sense to me, and I think Rivers is just as good as either Manning.  If I'm drafting a quarterback other than those top guys I'm waiting till the 6th round and grabbing Rivers.  Of the top ten QB's Peyton and Vick are the only ones I would draft a backup for.  Vick because of his injury history, and Peyton because of the uncertainty surrounding him.  Matt Ryan is also a fine starter if your in a deeper league.  Peyton is a big risk so I'd actually rather take Ryan as my starting QB.  If your getting a backup QB Robert Griffin III is obviously the most exciting, but if you want to get him make sure you don't reach for him.  I wouldn't draft a backup like RG3 until the 9th round at earliest, but I'd prefer just not to draft a backup QB.  In drafts I'm in I'm always going to try and get one of the elite five quarterbacks earlier on, and not draft a backup.

RB

Boy does this team need a "law-firm"

Running Back is incredibly weak this year and your goal should be to get as many as you can.  Hopefully you'll get one elite running back in the first three rounds, and after that just load up on running backs.  Wide Receiver is super deep so in rounds 4-7 you should be drafting at least two more running backs and more if you didn't get any early on.  You should end up with at least six running backs by the end of your draft.  If all goes well you want three running backs who you feel comfortable starting and another three or four who have potential.  When drafting running backs in the later rounds the key is to look for talent and opportunity.  You don't need both, but if you can that's the priority.  In the middle rounds look for players who have been undervalued.  One of my favorite steals for this draft is Benjarvus Green-Ellis.  Cincinnati is a team that likes to run the ball, and Green-Ellis is the type of powerful running back that can handle a lot of carries.  He's not the most explosive and shifty running back, but he grinds out yards and gets in the end zone.  Every year multiple running backs have breakout years so when drafting you should be looking for players who have that potential.  Overall, I want to get as many running backs as possible, and hope to get one guy who breaks out.

Lloyd: "So this is what a real throw feels like."

WR
Wide Receiver is super deep.  Just like running back I want to get one elite wide receiver, but unlike running back you have more elite options.  In the middle rounds you should mostly focus on running back, but by round 8 you should have at least 2 quality wide receivers.  In rounds 8-11 you can get surprisingly good wide receiver talent, and you should grab a couple here.  By the end of the draft you should have 5 or 6 wide receivers, and 2 or 3 of them being good starting/flex options.  In the middle rounds a good WR to grab is Brandon Lloyd.  Lloyd isn't going to get a ton of targets in the loaded patriots offense, but he will be dynamic nonetheless.  With Josh McDaniels as his offensive coordinator he should get a lot of deep looks from Tom Brady and could very easily have an 1,000 yard 10 touchdown year.  Lloyd could have a Randy Moss like year for the patriots, and at the very least he's a good flex play at WR.  In late rounds there is a lot of good talents like Reuben Randle, Titus Young, Vincent Brown, and Torrey Smith available for the taking.  Wide Receiver is the one position that is so deep it is hard not to leave the draft feeling like you picked well.  My one word of caution is that you don't forget to grab quality running backs because you want to take all the good WR's in the mid rounds.  Just be patient my friend.


TE

I'm coming for you Vernon

Graham and Gronkowski are both worth 2nd round picks.  If you don't get one of them, and don't feel like you need to get one of them, just wait.  Antonio Gates and Vernon Davis are going around 50th overall right now while Tony Gonzalez, Fred Davis, and Brandon Pettigrew are going 90th to 110th.  I legitimately feel that Vernon Davis is no better than any of those three and Gates is a major health concern. If I don't get one of the top guys I'm getting Davis, Gonzalez, Pettigrew, Jacob Tamme, or Jared Cook in the 10th round or later and feeling good about it.  I like Graham and Gronk, but truthfully if you end up Fred Davis and a elite RB/WR I'm just as if not more happy than getting Gronk and a mediocre WR or low end RB.  Fred Davis is in my opinion considerably better than Vernon Davis (from a fantasy perspective), and I am going after him if I don't get one of the top tight ends.

DEFENSE AND KICKER
A defense should be taken in the 15th round and a Kicker in the 16th.  There are no exceptions whatsoever, and it is absolutely ridiculous to do anything else.  Defenses are best if used on a week by week basis, and different kickers have good fantasy seasons every year.  There is no logical argument that a defense or kicker should be taken any earlier, and you should be stockpiling running backs and wide receivers. (Defenses and Kickers are so pointless I'm not even going to give them a picture)

ENDING TEAM

Your team should end up looking something like this: 1 Quarterback (unless you have Peyton or Vick), 7/6 Running Backs, 6/5 Wide Receivers, 1 Tight End (unless you have Gates), 1 Defense, 1 Kicker (if you think drafting Defense and Kickers is bad before the sixteenth, you can't even comprehend the concept of drafting a backup).  If you follow this strategy your team should be in pretty good shape.  I don't rank a full 200 players, but ESPN has some great resources and cheat sheets.  After the first 3 or 4 rounds I usually refer to analyst Matthew Berry's rankings, and I think his are the best available(they can be found on ESPN.com).  Feel free to use my top 30 rankings, in fact I'd feel very flattered if you did, but I do think making your own rankings is the best option there is.