Three Fantasy Football Thoughts

It's been over two weeks since I last posted, but with the start of school happening I've been caught up getting used to the new school year.  Anyway I figured I'd make a list of 3 things I have noticed so far this year in fantasy football. Some of my observations are more in depth (e.g. number 2)  while some are more quick (e.g. number 1).  It's totally random.

Three Observations

Fantasy owners don't find this funny

1. Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, and Jamaal Charles
Through two weeks CJ0K, DMC, and J-Mail (I so dearly love bad nicknames) have combined for 29 fantasy points.  That's six "weeks" of fantasy action from three consensus top ten running backs.  That's  an average of 4.8 points per game for these three.  If you project that over a sixteen game season this player would end with 77 fantasy points.  Trent Richardson has averaged 14 fantasy points per game over two weeks, and is the #10 fantasy running back.  Over 16 games Richardson would score 224 fantasy points, giving the fake running back a massive VADP of -147.  Whew that's brutal.  If you own them I'd be worried, Charles not so much because it seems he might've gotten injured in his most recent game.  All three are good "buy-low" candidates, but only if you can get them for pretty darn low.  Right now they are all #2 running back starters, but I wouldn't feel confident starting any of them.

2. Wide Receiver is a Mess

Jumping into the top ten

Only nine wide receivers scored 10 points or more in both week 1 and 2.  Only three scored 12 or more in both week 1 and 2.  None scored 15 or more in both week 1 or 2.  As a fantasy owner this frightens me.  As a fantasy owner I want to own one of those nine, and especially one of those three.  The nine are Demaryius Thomas, Reggie Wayne, Miles Austin, Brandon LaFell, Malcolm Floyd, Steve Johnson, Brandon Gibson, Steve Smith, and Percy Harvin.  Not one of those players was ranked as a top ten fantasy player in ESPN's standard wide receiver rankings.  The three are Demaryius, Wayne, and Austin.  Of those three none am I comfortable saying are going to be top 10 receivers this year (though I think Wayne and Demaryius have a pretty good chance).  Fantasy points are a good indicator of a wide receivers ongoing value, but targets and yards I find much more interesting.  In terms of yards, the only players to accumulate over 75 yards both weeks are Steve Smith, Calvin Johnson, Desean Jackson, Roddy White, Percy Harvin, and Demaryius Thomas.  Those six are another six who I feel comfortable starting, and considering high end fantasy performers.  Lastly the group of players who have gotten at least seven targets in both games is slightly larger, but still important.  This list contains Danny Amendola, Victor Cruz, Percy Harvin, Brandon Lloyd, Vincent Jackson, Roddy White, Brian Hartline, Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, Donnie Avery, Santonio Holmes, Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, Denarius Moore, Eric Decker, Mohammed Massaquoi, Michael Crabtree, and Julio Jones.

Do the John Wall...

If you combine a players targets per game, fantasy points per game, and yards per game divided by eight (you divide the players yards per game by 8 in order to balance that number with the rest), and you average the total you get a metric I made up myself called estimated fantasy value (EFV).  Using only players in one of the first two groups above (group three players can have skewed totals if they had one big game, and then another poor game where all they got were the targets) I came up with a list of top wide receivers based on their performance so far, and how it should translate to the future.  1. Reggie Wayne - 12.7  2. Demaryius Thomas - 11.92  3. Roddy White 10.94  4. Percy Harvin 10.92  5. Calvin Johnson - 10.77  6. Steve Smith - 10.21  These six are the top half of the 12 players who I "graded," and these were the only six to post scores higher than ten.  Many of the players who I did not grade would have posted scores higher than ten, and Danny Amendola in fact would register a score of 13.31.  This however is largely skewed by one game, and Amendola is a great example because his first game would have only been an 8.25.  To be an elite #1 wide receiver in fantasy football you need to show fantasy owners that you can consistently produce at a high level, even when you don't get the touchdowns that are so important.  By the end of the season there probably will be 5-10 players who fall into that category.  Of the group above Roddy White and Calvin Johnson were considered locks for that group pre-season, and based on their performance so far I think they will end up that way.  The remaining four contains to aging players in Steve Smith and Reggie Wayne, and two up and comers in Percy Harvin and Demaryius Thomas.  I think Thomas and Harvin have better odds of keeping up their impressive pace, and Smith and Wayne will more likely finish in the 10-15 range.

3.  TE is Crazy Deep

The tight ends are coming!

Much of the Fantasy discussion coming into this year was about how crazy deep wide receiver is.  Wide Receiver does have a lot of talent, but it's unpredictable.  In the last section I tried to highlight some wide receivers who are definite starters right now.  Even with all my work, I only came up with six names by the end (and frankly I'm not too sure about Steve Smith).  For those who like the mellow side of life.  For those who are better safe than sorry.  For those who tend to err on the side of caution.  I present to you the tight end.  I do not deny that Wide Receivers have tons more upside than tight ends, and you'll find way more wide receivers scoring fifteen plus points than tight ends.  However in the 7-15 point range no one is as sweet as the tight end.  Despite the fact that their are nearly triple as many wide receivers who could be considered relevant in fantasy, there are just as many consistent tight ends as wide receivers.  A wide receiver who gives you ten points or more will generally be a top 15 wide receiver in a given week.  A tight end who gives you seven points or more will generally be a top 12 tight end in a given week.  Nine wide receivers had back to back games of over ten points, and eight tight ends had back to back games of over seven points.  If you are the type of fantasy owner who likes to play it safe, or you are strong at running back and quarterback I strongly recommend trying to acquire a high end tight end.  With a good fantasy team having balanced production from the tight end slot versus having volatile production at wide receiver can be the difference between a Championship and missing the playoffs.  In fact the new ESPN standard rules this year allows teams to play TE's at the flex, so if you really wanted to play it safe you could get a second starter level TE  (I'd say there's about 11 of them) to play at the flex position.  If you have a good roster in which your flex position is already strong I don't think this is a great strategy, but if your team is in need of some stability going after a TE might not be too bad an idea.

Random Thoughts on NFL Teams: A NFL Preview

MVP (Regular Season): Aaron Rodgers 
He's just really freaking good.  Yah that is my only argument.

NFC

NFC EAST

1. New York Giants
This pains me dearly.  I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to write anything coherent for the rest of the conference. (REVERSE JINX!!!)
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Whole season depends on Vick's health.  He alone can vault this team to Super Bowl contention, but if he's not on the field they're not going to make the playoffs.
3. Washington Redskins
In the first Redskins versus Eagles game ESPN is going to play up the whole "running quarterbacks duel" wayyyyyyyyyy to much.  I'm already having nightmares.
4. Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys are a banged up team that has a lot of good players.  Not much depth after their "stars," and crappy offensive line play submarines America's team.

NFC WEST

1. San Francisco 49ers
I expect a regression from last year, but with Harbaugh at the helm they'll stay on top of this pathetic division.
2. Seattle Seahawks
All aboard the Russell Wilson bandwagon!  All aboard!  Damn, people are jumping on this bandwagon nearly as fast as the new look Lakers.  Luckily I pre-ordered my ticket when I heard that Matt Flynn was supposed to be the starter.
3. Arizona Cardinals
"Larry Fitzgerald breaks away from the defense.  He's open near the end zone as the pass goes up. (Cardinals fans sighing loudly in background)  Skelton's pass sails out of bounds, and the Cardinals are going to have to punt again."
4. St. Louis Rams
Bradford has looked good in pre-season, but this receiving corps is the only one that I think is worse than the Jets.  The Rams are getting better... it's just not happening fast enough.

NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers
The biggest question entering this Packers season is, "What will the next discount double check add be about?"
2. Detroit Lions
Assuming Matthew Stafford can stay healthy again this season, I expect a very similar season for the Lions.  They are going to throw the ball a ridiculous amount, and luckily they've got Megatron.
3. Chicago Bears
I'm not sure why everyone has decided the Bears are going to be a sleeper team this year.  They have a slightly above-average defense, and an average offense.  However, they have freaking Jay Cutler at quarterback.  Jay Cutler!
4. Minnesota Vikings
I still can't decide whether Christian Ponder is going to be a solid Quarterback or not.  I also can't decide whether Toby Gerhart is a good Running Back or not.  They both appear bad in the scouting report, but look fairly good in game action.

NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta Falcons
This Falcons team has a plethora of weapons on offense, and with a solid defense they should catapult to the division title.  The big question is whether Matt Ryan's "Matty Ice" moniker is a sex-tape name for Ryan or him fantasizing about a rap career.
2. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are the anti-Bears in the NFC this year.  Everyone is way too down on the Saints this year.  If we've learned anything from the last couple football seasons it is that great quarterbacks lead to team success.  I think the Saints will get worse, but will have a similar season to Detroit circa 2011-2012.  (I can't believe I got through this without a bounty gate joke).
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I like Josh Freeman to have a bounce back year, but this team just doesn't have enough talent all-around to compete with the Saints and Falcons.
4. Carolina Panthers
I absolutely love Cam Newton.  I absolutely hate the rest of this Panthers team.   Just like last year Cam will generate hype and make some highlights, but this team isn't going anywhere.  (Despite this brilliant add by Matt Kalil)

NFC Wildcards: New Orleans and Detroit (That's right, though the seeding is different I think the exact same teams will make the NFC playoffs this year as last.  Yeah, now that I think about it, that's probably not going to happen.)

NFC Championship Game: Green Bay versus Atlanta (Matty Ice gunning for the Super Bowl)

NFC Champion: Green Bay

AFC

AFC EAST

1. New England Patriots
With the easiest schedule in football, and one of the best teams in football it doesn't take a genius to see the Patriots winning this division.
2. Buffalo Bills
If it's true that Fitzpatrick was injured for most of last season I think the Bills will wind up as one of those 9-7 teams that gets a couple wins over some great team's, but also falls apart against some bad teams.
3. New York Jets
If the Jets are under 500% after five games this season it's going to be Tebow Time.  In all truthfulness, I think that will make this NFL season 5% better.  Even if he sucks (which I'm starting to think he does), he's a helluva lot more exciting to watch than Mark Sanchez.
4. Ryan Tannehill Sucks Miami Dolphins
You know when you're in the same division as Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sachez, and Tim Tebow and you're still the worst quarterback in the division you've got problems.  Ryan Tannehill ladies and gentleman.

AFC WEST
1. Denver Broncos
This is a case of, "well the Raiders have Palmer, the Chiefs have Cassel and Crenell, and the Chargers have Norv.  This is not a case of, "I love the fact that the Broncos have a 36 year old quarterback coming off his fourth neck surgery."  That being said, the Broncos have far and away the best defense in this division.
2. San Diego Chargers
Phillip Rivers and Josh Freeman are buddies in the "we had a lot of hype coming into last year, but then had horrible seasons while throwing a ton of picks" group that is going to bounce back this year.  C'mon Norv I believe in your horrible decision making.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have a coach and quarterback with a track history of absolutely, positively sucking.  However, they have good defensive talent, a solid offensive line, and a nice two-headed backfield monster of Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis.
4. Oakland Raiders
Carson Palmer hasn't been good in five years.  Darren McFadden hasn't been healthy his whole life.  The Oakland Raiders haven't had a winning record since 2002.  All of these things will continue to be true.  (I actually expect the Raiders to be like 6-10 or 7-9, bad, but not horrible).

AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens
Even without T. Sizzle for some of the season the Ravens will be sizzling to first place.  That pun was even worse than I thought it was going to be.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
I expect improvement from Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, and Jermaine Gresham this year.  I also think Benjarvus Green-Ellis is a slight upgrade over Cedric Benson.  Overall, the Bengals will just be a better version of last year's team.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Still got a pretty good defense, but have no running game and only an average passing game.  All that means is a big drop for the Steelers.
4. Cleveland Browns
Has the combination of "28 year old rookie QB", "injury prone rookie RB", "shaky offensive line", and "sports team in Cleveland" ever worked out well?  No, I didn't think so.

AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans
If Matt Schaub has a good season (which means Andre Johnson probably has a good season) this is a super bowl contender.  If not, they are a weak playoff team with a great defense, and the best running game in football.
2. Tennessee Titans
I'm one of the few people who thinks the Titans are a playoff caliber team.  I'm also one of the few people who thinks Jake Locker is not going to suck.  Locker has good threats in the passing game (Nate Washington, Kenny Britt, Kendall Wright), and a dynamic running back to take pressure off him.  With a good defense and offensive line, the Titans are my pick to sneak into the playoffs this year (Every year a team sneaks into the playoffs because they're in a bad division, and they're slightly better than people think.  The Titans are that team.)
3. Indianapolis Colts
Do I think they will be good? No.  Do I think they will be better than the Jaguars? Yes.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
I have to admit that Blaine Gabbert has looked better this pre-season.  I don't think it's possible that he could have looked any worse.  If the MJD holdout continues the Jaguars might have 0-16 potential.  Last year the Jaguars had the worst offense in the NFL (based on yards per game).  Last year Maurice Jones-Drew accounted for basically 50% of that offense (47.7% to be exact).  I think the message is clear.  The Jaguars should be forcing Jones-Drew to return to camp at all costs.
(EDITOR'S NOTE: On September 2nd returned to Jacksonville training camp)

AFC Wildcards: Cincinnati and Tennessee (Like I said, Tennessee is undeserving, but will sneak in.)

AFC Championship Game: New England versus Houston (Matt Schaub will be decent this year)

AFC Champion: New England (As a diehard Pats fan, I really didn't want to jinx them by predicting them to do well.  I just looked at the field and decided that the Patriots had clearly the most offensive talent int the AFC, and if the Defense is even a little better than last year they can make it back to the Super Bowl.)

SUPER BOWL WINNER: New England defeats Green Bay  (I repeat my thoughts from above.  I hate predicting my team to win, but they are absolutely loaded offensively.  If the defense becomes only slightly below average I think the Pats will be the best team in football.  I also think Bill Belichick is going to come into this year pissed off, and just command the Patriots to victory.)