It's the big day. You've done your research the past week, and you're feeling pretty confident. Maybe you know what pick you have, maybe you don't. Either way, you know which guys you want right? If your answer is no, then you have not adequately prepared for the draft. Whether you know where your drafting or not you need to have a top-ten or top-twelve list (depending on the number of teams in your league) in your hand that you are willing to follow no matter the situation.
ROUND 1
The first round of a fantasy football draft is both the hardest and the easiest round in the whole draft. Come draft day it should be the easiest round when you're actually drafting. Your first pick should not take more than five seconds. Realize it's your turn, check your list, and say the highest name on that list. Pretty simple. However, what makes the first round so hard is that list. If you're in a ten team league it should be a list of ten players, and if you're in a twelve team league a list of twelve etc... Hundreds of websites and magazines have their own version of top-however many teams are in your league so feel free to use any of them. Personally, I think you should create your own list based on your personal preference of players. This year when I was making my top-twelve (I play in a twelve team league) there were eight players I knew were going to be on the list, and then six players competing for the remaining four spots. My top eight, in order, is as follows: 1. Aaron Rodgers 2. Ray Rice 3. Arian Foster 4. Tom Brady 5. Lesean McCoy 6. Maurice Jones-Drew 7. Drew Brees 8. Calvin Johnson - In that top eight the part I found really difficult was Rice, Foster, and Brady. What it ultimately came down to was upside and downside. I don't think Rice will do any better than he did last season, but last season he ended up as the league-wide most valuable player in fantasy football. On a per week basis it was Rodgers first and then Foster, but they each missed weeks which brought down their VBD (Value Based Drafting VBD is a way of examining a player's true value, and is why even though Quarterbacks are traditionally the highest scorers running backs are taken before them. For a full description you can read this article by ESPN's Christopher Harris Great Article That You Should Read You really should read it because I will be referring to VBD a lot in this blog post). The reason I had Rice first among those three is that at worst I think he scores 10 instead of 15 touchdowns, but that would still make him last year's fifth best overall. Foster was the best per week back last year, but I think his production will be lower this year because backup Ben Tate will get more carries. Brady is the only elite quarterback that should improve from last year to this because he added Brandon Lloyd, but I still can't see Brady finishing higher than fourth in year end VBD while both Foster and Rice have more potential than that. Because of that very confusing reasoning it went Rice, Foster, then Brady in my personal 2, 3, 4. 
The remaining six players to complete the top twelve are (in no particular order) Chris Johnson, Ryan Matthews, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, Rob Gronkowski, and Matthew Stafford. Each of those players has a couple big concerns to me. For Chris Johnson it is the fact that for much of last year he sucked. The only reason CJ1K is back in first round talk is because he ended strongly last year by both normal metrics and especially advanced metrics, and the running back field is so weak this year. Ryan Matthews and Matt Stafford both have injury concerns. Matthews finally has no competition in the backfield to vulture touchdowns (that's right were looking at you Mike Tolbert), but he still needs to stay healthy, which he hasn't done in the past. Stafford managed to stay healthy last year, and if he stays healthy he should be worthy of a first round-pick. However, in previous years Stafford has had some serious health issues so owners may want to draft a good backup for Stafford. Gronkowski and Lynch both had phenomenal seasons last year, but the question is whether they could sustain quite that high a level of play. For Lynch the concern is that now that he has his contract will he go back to not playing 100% all the time like he did before the end of last season? Really, nobody knows the answer to that question, and fantasy owners can do nothing but hope if they end up drafting Lynch. Gronk does not have motivation questions like Lynch, but because of the addition of Brandon Lloyd and defenses keying on Gronk more he may see a drop in production. Also, even though Gronk is a great red-zone target, he will probably see a drop in touchdowns because it is unprecedented for a player to get that many touchdowns for two straight years. Matt Forte may run into trouble because the Bears signed Michael Bush from the Raiders who will not just vulture touchdowns, but may also eat into the number of touches Forte gets outside the Red Zone. However, there is precedent that Forte can succeed because he still performed great with Marion Barber also in the backfield last year. I spent a lot of time analyzing these six players, but in the end I ordered them like so: 9. Matt Forte 10. Chris Johnson 11. Matthew Stafford 12. Ryan Matthews 13. Marshawn Lynch 14. Rob Gronkowski - Forte I ranked first because we have seen him succeed with another running back in the backfield, and Forte was a top five back until he went down with injury in the latter half of the season (Forte is not an injury concern because it was an ankle sprain, not a major injury, and Forte does not have an injury prone history). Ranking Johnson tenth was very difficult because we have seen just how bad he can be, but it also makes sense because he could very easily end up as fantasy's number one overall back with his talent. I think Stafford has the least upside of this group, as I don't see him being significantly better than last year's tenth overall VBD finish, but barring injury I think he has the least downside as well which makes him a good choice. If Matthews stays healthy he will end as a top-ten overall player in VBD, but I think he will miss at least one game and be somewhat hampered in another. What makes Matthews a relatively safe pick is that even if he misses time, last year he proved that he could still be a late second round quality back as he finished nineteenth overall in VBD. If you forecast Lynch's last nine games over a sixteen game season he would have finished fifth overall among running backs and tied for sixth among all players in VBD. I don't think we will quite see that type of production, but now that Lynch knows how good it feels to be positively portrayed in the spotlight he will continue playing near that level. I do put Gronkowski fourteenth overall, but I do so with plenty of misgivings. I think Gronk could put up the numbers he did last year, but he could also get six less touchdowns and 150 less yards. If that were to have happened last year he would have finished with a VBD of 77, and Michael Bush came in twentieth with a VBD of 86. Otherwise known as Gronk can fluctuate anywhere from eleventh overall (last year's ranking) to about 25th. In twelve team leagues that's the difference between first round and third round, so I settled at fourteenth overall.
So, I ended up with this as my twelve team first round rankings: 1. Aaron Rodgers 2. Ray Rice 3. Arian Foster 4. Tom Brady 5. Lesean McCoy 6. Maurice Jones-Drew 7. Drew Brees 8. Calvin Johnson 9. Matt Forte 10. Chris Johnson 11. Matthew Stafford 12. Ryan Matthews.
Feel free to use my rankings come draft day, or even better, make your own. If you have any questions about these players or other things involving Fantasy Football feel free to email me at JZSportskid52@gmail.com or contact me via twitter @JZSportskid52
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