Monday, July 23, 2012

Rookie Power Rankings: Summer League Update

I'm not sure if I will keep doing this, but this is version one of the 2012 rookie power rankings.  This is a ranking of who has performed the best, and looks like they will have the best NBA career.  This particular version of the power rankings will not include our uni-browed friend Anthony Davis because he did not play in summer league.  The following is a top ten in reverse order:

10. MICHAEL KIDD-GILCHRIST
MKG would be higher on the list, but he only played one game so he didn't have as much time to build his summer league resume.  In his one game he did impress.  Gilchrist's defense and rebounding came as no surprise, but the fact he averaged 18 points and 5 assists was a little eye-opening.  If Kidd-Gilchrist can combine his toughness and defense with a consistent offensive game he will be nearly unstoppable, and a perennial all-star.  Due to his athleticism the sky is the limit for Gilchrist, and if he were to develop a three point shot, improve his ball handling, and get some offensive moves his game would closely resemble Scottie Pippen.  Gilchrist is around the same size, and he has similar defensive capabilities and offensive explosion to Pippen.  Gilchrist is not the point forward that Pippen was, but he is not a selfish player and could easily average five or six assists a game.

9. HARRISON BARNES
Barnes was just as frustrating as ever this past week at summer league.  At times he would assert himself and be a match-up problem for whoever the defense threw at him, but other times he would fade into the background as a spot up shooter.  Barnes did seem to have a little trouble adjusting to the athletes he was facing as he only shot 40% percent from the field.  However, Barnes was good in transition and ended up averaging 16.8 points per game over the course of his five games.  On the other end, Barnes was great.  He averaged almost two steals and six rebounds, while playing tough defense.  Barnes seamlessly transitioned between playing shooting guard or small forward which showed his versatility on both ends, and proved that he was worth his lottery selection.

8. ROYCE WHITE
White started out slowly, and had a pathetic first two games but picked it up after that.  In his last three games White averaged 10.7 points, 10.7 rebounds (not a typo), and 5.3 assists.  Not incredible on paper, but much more impressive watching.  I originally tuned into the Rockets to see them face the Wizards in White's second game, but he was not who impressed me.  Somebody a bit farther down this list made me want to watch the Rockets one more time, but I happened to see White's 11 point 10 rebound 7 assist game also that evening.  White has been getting compared to a lot of people.   I've heard Charles Barkley, Magic Johnson, and Boris Diaw as the three most frequent comparisons.  Personally, I don't agree with any of them.  Royce isn't as athletic as Chuck, but is considerably more so than Diaw.  I think the Magic comparison is most accurate of the three, but still not right.  White is much bigger than Magic (260 lbs to about 215) and is more of a banger inside.  I'm going to steal a term that my favorite sports writer Bill Simmons used to describe Lebron James' Game 2 against the Thunder.  Simmons called Lebron a "power point" to describe him dominating inside while distributing the ball like a point guard.  That is how I would describe White.  He makes incredible highlight reel passes, but also bangs the boards and scores from the post.

7. DONATAS MOTIEJUNAS (I think he wins the spell check's most hated award)
Motiejunas played three great games at summer league and one absolute dud.  In three good games Donatas averaged about 21 points and 9 boards, while in one other game he put up 1 point and 4 rebounds.  I have no explanation for that besides him possibly getting freaked out by facing fellow Euro Jan Vesely (and that doesn't make sense either).  Either way, Motiejunas has good skill for a big man, and proved that he was able to step all the way out to the three point line (sounds a little bit like some other Euro big man...).  Overall, Motiejuans seemed like a tougher Andrea Bargnani without quite as good a shot.  Bargnani's biggest problem is defense and rebounding, and although Motiejunas doesn't have quite as good an offensive game he is considerably better in those other areas.

6. THOMAS ROBINSON
Robinson was one of the most interesting players at summer league.  He did somethings great, and other things terrible.  Offensively he forced things and tried to do to much, but over time rookies learn their capabilities so that can be forgiven.  Robinson only shot 34% from the field and averaged nearly 5 turnovers a game, but still managed to score 13 points per game.  On the other end though Robinson was fantastic averaging 1 steal and 9.8 rebounds capped off by a 16 rebound performance in his last outing.  Robinson finished third in rebounding in summer league, and should be expected to continue that success in the NBA.  Rebounding is the statistic that most reliably translates from the college game to the pros, and because of Robinson's explosiveness and instincts he should continue to be successful on the glass.

5. BRADLEY BEAL
As a Wizards fan I got to see more of Beal than any other prospect on this list.  I don't know if that hurt or helped Beal's ranking, but it definitely affected it (it also affected how many words I'll spend on him).  After watching Beal a couple things stuck out.  Beal will be a good if not great player on the defensive end.  He averaged a steal and a block, and with his strength and length (rhyme not intended) on the defensive end he is a tough match-up.  Offensively Beal is a pretty good passer who is willing to give the ball up when he draws help defenders.  He only averaged 1.8 assists, but that was more a product of Chris Singleton and Shelvin Mack missing the open shots he gave them.  Beal is also fantastic at getting the ball in transition.  When Beal decides to crash the boards he is a good rebounder, but he also likes to leak out and see if he can get a fast break off an outlet pass.  Jan Vesely (who was by far the most promising of the Vesely, Singleton, Mack class) did a good job of hitting him out on the break, and Beal was a very strong finisher.  That was my favorite thing about Beal, he attacked the basket strong, and if someone was in his way then he was able to get to the stripe by drawing a foul.  Beal did not shoot very well (42% from field, 30% from three), but a lot of rooks have trouble shooting the ball when their fast acclimating to the speed and athleticism of the pro game.  I don't think Beal is as great a shooter as people say, and he is not an explosive enough athlete to get to the hole as often as I would like.  However he has a great basketball IQ and knows what his strengths are on a basketball court.

4. JOHN HENSON
Henson was a very pleasant surprise for me at summer league.  I thought Henson would be a good defensive player who can knock down an open 15 footer, but he showed more than that.  Defensively Henson was just as good as I thought, getting steals, blocks, and altering a ton of shots with his length.  Offensively he showed a surprisingly developed post game with a hook shot, fade-away, and face-up game that we never saw at UNC.  With his quick feet and nice touch around the basket Henson ended up averaging 18.3 points while shooting an efficient 53% from the field.  My main criticism of Henson is his rebounding.  For a 6-10 long bouncy forward 6.8 rebounds is very mediocre.  Henson's rebounding numbers are a little skewed because in his last game he only had 1 board, but nonetheless he needs to more consistently get rebounds.  Henson didn't do a bad job by any means on the glass though, and overall he looks to be a great get for Milwaukee.

3. TERRENCE JONES
Jones and Henson put up similar numbers at summer league so I debated a long time for who to put ahead of the other in these rankings.  The pros for Henson was that he was a better shot blocker, and he got more steals (translation: better defensively).  Jones main attribute in which he beat Henson was his rebounding (8.6 per game versus Henson's 6.8).  However what made me decide was I looked at each of their "best games."  Your best game can more show what type of potential you have, and it was still close but Jones won.  Henson's best was a 22 point 9 rebound performance in 37 minutes of action.  Terrence was more efficient, and put up 24 points and 12 boards in only 30 minutes of playing time.  Jones is a extremely versatile offensive player who is really strong down low (250 lbs), but also can take you outside with three point range.  Jones is altogether a very explosive player who eats up rebounds on one side, and can attack the basket on the other end ferociously.  Jones biggest question has always been effort, and this past week in Vegas he went 100% and showed off his dominant potential.

2. JEREMY LAMB
That's right, four Houston Rockets made the list.  I might be a little biased because I watched two of their games (I watched three Wiz games, and most teams I only saw once), but they do have some impressive pieces.  I wonder if it would be worth giving up all four of them for Dwight Howard, because I know Houston GM Darryl Morey is probably willing to do it.  Either way Jeremy Lamb looked great.  Defensively Lamb was good, and for a shooting guard he did a good job rebounding with 4.4 per game.  Offensively however was what impressed everyone.  Lamb was second amongst rookies (and were getting to first) in scoring at exactly 20 points per game.  Lamb shot a strong 47% from the field, rarely forced things offensively, and seemed to score easily in the flow of the offense.  Similarly to the way Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant make scoring look so easy, Lamb calmly takes a couple of dribbles left and then pulls up for a fade away with smoothness that you rarely see.  Lamb was not at all a ball hog, but also is not a very good passer and once the ball gets in his hands he needs to work on finding people when he attacks.  However Lamb was dynamic offensively, and is the centerpiece of the Rockets four young stars (If you count Lin as a fifth the Rockets could conceivably put Lin, Lamb, White, Jones, and Motiejunas all on the floor at once to create a very young and exciting group.  If the Rockets wanted to go all rookies they could even put promising un-drafted point guard from Iona Scott Machado at the helm to go along with the other four.) .

1. DAMIAN LILLARD
If you followed summer league at all you knew this position was his.  Luckily for Lillard he'll probably get to hold the top spot for longer than anyone, as he gets the whole off season before Anthony Davis starts competing for the crown.  Lillard didn't just lead all rookies, he lead all scorers with a fantastic 26.5 points per game.  Lillard didn't just score the ball though, and 5.3 assists and 4 rebounds were both above-average among guards.  In an 84-78 victory over the Hawks Lillard poured in 31 points while dishing out seven assists, and gave us the highlight of summer league play with this dunk: Nasty DUNK link you really should click on.  What's so great about that dunk is that he was being compared to Chauncey Billups when he made this play.  Lillard has the composure, shooting ability, and passing skill of someone like Billups, but he also has the athleticism to make Derrick Rose/Russell Westbrook/John Wall type plays like his dunk.  Lillard reminds me most of a better shooting Derrick Rose.  I don't think he has quite the same first step and explosiveness that Rose possesses, but Lillard is a much better natural shooter and a slightly better passer.  I am very excited with Lillard, I think he will become an all-star, and I think he has the potential to be as good as a Derrick Rose.  Not to brag or anything (actually who am I kidding, this is to brag), but in my first article on this site I argued that Lillard should go third overall in the upcoming draft.  So in case you wanted to read a more full breakdown of Lillard here's the link: I Know You Don't Want to Read This, I Just Want to Brag  Overall Lillard wasn't just the rookie MVP, but deserved the Summer League MVP and should be a great part of the future for Portland.

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